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12-28-2005, 06:55 PM
JerseyDevil has recommended that I start a Weather Thread on here. As a weather enthusiast, I figured I would follow through with his reccomendation. Each Day I'll try to post some thoughts about the upcoming weather in this thread. And more if theres any type of Storm coming.

Scroll down to the newest replies for the latest!

Thursday, December 29th, 2005

Previous Forecast Wrap-up
Alright my last forecast wasnt the greatest. Not the best way to get started with the newest expirement. I was under on the rain ammounts, Most places saw about .75" esepcially on the Eastern Portions of the state. I never gave an end time, but the start time I was right on with. It started around 2-4AM for much of the state so my 3 AM call was right on.

Upcoming Disucssion
Now onto the next forecast.. Which does have some changes. The forecast discussion looks like this boring again until New Years. Tomorrow could be the best day of the week for many! (Of course not for Snow/Cold lovers such as myself). But Tomorrow even in the NW corner of the state we'll break in the 40's. And along much of the state, The upper 40's to lower 50's. Slightly cooler along the beaches. The New Years storm is a changing one. The models started hinting at it yesterday and its been going strong since. Yesterday, I didnt believe, today Im still skeptical but The New Years forecast looks like this. It's hard to forecast for Jersey in one batch so heres a quick New Years Early Thoughts. I'll keep it general and easy for tonight. If it changes by tomorrow morning's models I'll make a map.

New Years Forecast
But rain moves in during the day on Saturday. Relatively light. Not a big deal. It may mix with some light snow, but not much south of Middlesex County I think if any. And even the mixing will be on hte light side. The precip should become more scattered after 9 PM. Right now NO accumulation for MUCH of the state but NW Jersey could see some Minor accumulations on the grassy surfaces, IF THAT. For the rest of the state some light snow may begin to fall as the system moves away In the EARLY morning hours of New Years Day. But not a big deal.

This is a changing forecast so stay tuned. And then as if we can't get a break. Another system moves on through Monday. I'll post more about that tomorrow. Enjoy the beautiful weather tomorrow!

Wednesday, December 28th, 2005

Right now though the Pattern is WET. And WARM. Enjoy it. Bascially for the next several days we'll continue the every other day being wet. Like Tonights rainfall which will start around 3 AM and last into the mid-day hours tomorrow. Nearly a .5" Should fall on average. And then we'll bring rain into the forecast by Saturday for New Years Eve. Not a BIG Deal though.

Next Chance of snow? Not anytime soon! The Warm Pattern MAY start to SLOWLY break down LATE next week, but even that is in question. By Jan. 15th though expect at least near normal temps to return, but that doesnt nesecarily mean snow.

12-28-2005, 07:04 PM
This wil be great. Can I suggest that you put dates in the weather forecasts, such as...

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

It'll just make it easier for people to come up with what the latest forecast is. You can also add in what the actual weather was like afterward and how accurate you were. :)

12-29-2005, 03:21 PM
This wil be great. Can I suggest that you put dates in the weather forecasts, such as...

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

It'll just make it easier for people to come up with what the latest forecast is. You can also add in what the actual weather was like afterward and how accurate you were. :)

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Rainy most of the Day in Central NJ.
Sun -- only in your dreams

Currently -- Cloudy
Lows expected about mid-upper 30s (3-5C)
Winds out of WNW ~ 10-20mph (16-32kph)
May rain overnight. May not rain overnight. ;)

I probably will not be very consistant with this, but I will try to drop in every now and then.

01-01-2006, 01:45 AM
A Happy New Year to All!


Previous Forecast
I have been away from my computer for the past few days and wasn't able to post yesterday but it looks like my thoughts thursday weren't far off. The NW portions of the state saw it the worst. Some accumulation there, even on the roadways. The NE corner of the state saw it mostly on the grassy surfaces and even they mixed if not changed over. Where I am in Beachwood, Ocean County we even managed to squeeze out a few flakes this AM but had a mostly rain event. As I described. And by Midnight it looks like for many areas it has clearing out, a cold night left, but a few flurries is the worst of our problems.

The First Week of 2006
Now this upcomnig week, looks interesting. If you asked me on Christmas what i thought of the first week of 2006 I would have set put a sock in it. But it has changed and it has changed quite quickly. For your New Years Day last week at this time it looked like Highs could be into the 60's. Now we'll top out in the lower 40s. And 30's even NW. But it will be sunny as you relax and enjoy the first day of the New Year. We'll dip into the low 30's once again Sunday night, and thats where the fun begins.

Monday/Tuesday's System
Monday, a holiday for many, will be another rainy one. The rain rolls in West to east by 4 AM in Western areas, it starts scattered of course. But NW Jersey could start as some snow or Freezing rain and MUST be watched at this time. As we learned today if it falls and temps are below freezing it will create problems. But by Noon the latest, everyone is all over to some plain rain. Once the sun begins to set and temps begin to cool the rain could mix with or even end as a period of light snow NW to SE. (That is a big tale of winter in the state of course the NW portions always are the "winners") Whatever the precip that is left will be a few scattered showers as we clear out on Tuesday. Tuesday's highs will be into the 40s.

More SNOW on the way?
And Perhaps the biggest question mark of the week in my opinion is Thursday night into friday. Some of the models are starting to show the makings of a snowstorm. Worst case scenario the area gets a significant storm Thursday night. I AM NOT CALLING FOR THAT. But it is possible. I know many outlets only have showers but the makers are there and a few models are showing it. So we'll have to see. Right now i think some rain, and mostly that. But if this is a trend that continues that forecast can change in a hurry.

01-02-2006, 07:04 PM
Just wanted to post some QUICK thoughts about Tonight's system into tomorrow. The first thing I want to address is the Time of the change-over for the areas that will expierence one.

NW will Stay almost all snow. With some Ice.
NE will see the changeover in the mid morning hours.
Central Jersey will see the changeover between Noon-2. North to South.

This map is the accumulation Map:

One of my biggest conerns is Ice Accumulations in the Northern Parts of the state as well. All needs to be watched and monitored.

Precip Ends Tomorrow night.

Next chance of a storm Is Thursday night. Some questions as to, when, if and strenght of the storm. But we'll address that tomorrow. One storm at a time for now.

Enjoy the White for some. And be Careful!!

01-12-2006, 05:45 PM
Took me long enough. But then again with such A BORING pattern its been quite easy as a weather buff to drown out. As a snow Buff its quite easy to really drone out. We have another event on tap, a day in the upper 50's, a warm week.. a lot on tap. Things are changing a bit. So Herer is todays Weather Blog..

Thursday, December 12, 2006
Alright. So here we go. We will get things going quickly..

Past Forecast
Just wanted to comment on my last post from the Jan. 3rd system. I had things bumped a bit too far south. But then again not really. In Monmouth County.. they say a few flakes mixed in as a forecasted it was only a few flakes. Middlesex county was a bit of a bust with several flakes and such. But that was that. But NW NJ was right on. Most places in there wound up with 4"+ as I called for. So that is relatively good. Could I have been better? Of course! We'll strive for it next time.

WARM Janurary
Onward we move. Since then. It has been a WARM Janurary. Top 10 capable as of this moment for the Warmest Jan. Ever. These upcoming 2-3 weeks are supposed to be among the coldest of the year by average temperatures. Even in Parts of the area like Cape May are finding average temperatures next week that will be hovering around 40*. So it is getting to what SHOULD be the Height of winter. But it hardly has felt that way. And won't really start to for a while yet.

Short Term Forecast=SNOW?
Tomorrow. Temps will be into the 50's. A SLIGHT 60 is possible. I doubt it will be anywhere but Southwestern portions of the state. Just along the coast will be colder slightly. But we'll see. Friday night into Saturday. Warm and wet. Rain gets going falling and that. Rain will be heavy at times Friday night. It may taper off at times Saturday. As the high temperature is reached just after midnight in the mid-40's. It will crash and tumble throughout the day. And by Saturday night. NW portions of the state could see Snow. AND HEAVY Snow. Will it be enough to accumulate? That remains to be seen at this moment. And it could even make its way to the Coast into Sunday mornin's EARLY hours as the backlash Nor'Easter gets going. It can't be seen for sure. But I think Its much more of a NW deal. But who knows. Some models were close enough to showing a blizzard like snows falling in NYC.

And to those who say it cant stick.. keep in mind it COULD. If we had flash Freezing. March 8,2005.. a perfect example. It was above freezing.. temperatures TUMBLED QUICKLY and it was a nightmare commute because the snow that fell stuck. I am not calling for that but saying that is the key. SURFACE temperatures at that current time are what really matters. Because remember it can snow with temperatures down here as high as 36* usually.

COLD temperatures!!
We'll see. Headline of the weekend though I think for now is the COLD sunday. Wind chills in the morning and through much of the day could get as low as the single Digits in the NW corners.. and even the teens for much rest of the area. High temperatures will range from a chilly 30*-35*. A cold day. Not for Janurary really, but for the current pattern!

Looking ahead, we start to warm up to the 40's on MLK Jr. Day. And throughout hte week its MILD. Not as warm as its been but anything above 40* this time of year is WARM. And we'll reach 45* or better Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and up to the weekend. I think we START to cool down this weekend and as we head towards the 23-26th we will see a pattern change. Colder, more seasonable conditions will definiately be in the forecast.

Long Range Outlook
Winter Will Return!
Late Jan (Jan. 27th-Feb. 7th) could be snowy. and ESPECIALLY late Feb (Feb. 26th- March 10th+) Could be snowy again. We'll have to see what takes place. A lot of time. But Dont write winter off just yet. A lot is still to come. And i really like EARLY march for snow. (Good thing for many is March Snows don't stick around USUALLY)

Until Next time..

01-14-2006, 12:09 PM
Alright. a BRIEF post. After a tornado watch and all (No Tornado's reported) and some heavy Thunderstorms round 1 of today storm is drying out for almost the entire state. As the costal low gets ready to get going later tonight.

This is the storm that will feature rain changing to snow Around 10 PM. The most of the moisture will be in the Central eastern parts of the state it looks like. There is still a model battle. But I am going to go with the model we call the GFS. I know its ironic I put myself in the bullseye, and i express cuation that if the other major model turns out to be right its a general 1-2" statewide. But heres how my accumulations look. Most of the snow between 10PM-7AM. After 7 AM most the real snowfall will be over and just be falling as flurries.


Roadways could become slick. Whatever falls has the POTENTIAL to stick and whatever is there could re-freeze. So early in the morning be careful as you are out and about early in the day. Tonights lows will be in the upper 20's and by tomorrow much of the state will struggle to get above freezing. High temps between 30-35*. By Sunday night a low of 20* so maybe the real headline is the temporary Return of Jan like weather! By monday we rebound to 40* and by Tuesday and wednesday upper 40's return!

And keep in mind there is a wind advisory. Gusts over night and throughout the day tomorrow will be around 50MPH! Tropical Storm force gusts! So..

01-16-2006, 07:41 PM
[ Monday January 16, 2006

Previous Forecast
Did I nail that forecast? For much of the state.. Yes. For some parts.. I COMPLETELY GOT CRUSHED. Most people yesterday saw a general 1-2". But Cenral and South east Jersey Really saw some accumulations. As they say in Real Estate.. it's LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION. Had I believed the one model, I would have been looking like a genuis. But I never am a believer in Backlash snows, but boy did I get proven wrong.

So here are some totals very Few.. but a few from the National Weather Service to show the variability. It truely was where those heavier bands set up that played a major role in the storm. Our highest total, 7.8" In Tabernacle Burlington County and that maybe a little low because the measuremnt was taken before the storm formally ended. Monmouth County had totals in the 2-4" Range; Ocean in the 4-7" range for the most part, Mercer 2-4", Cape May as high as 4"; And then counties like Middlesex got about an inch.

So I was too low in many places, and right on in others. The snow drifts were absolutely amazing. I will post some of my personal snow pictures a bit later tonight; and I encourage anybody else who has any to post them here as well! It'd be GREAT to see them.

So Now.. after A COLD day.. we get ready for our next storm. Most of it will be rain for everyone. But NW areas are of Question.

Let's say for: SUSSEX, WARREN, and Parts of Somerset Counties.. it will be a concern for Ice. Precipitation rolls in tomorrow for those areas after 10 AM and start as some Freezing rain. A MAJOR problem. Snow is better as we all know then Freezing Rain. The changeover will not come until Tuesday evening. So up to a .10-.20" Of Ice could from so BE CAREFUL Up there. Mount Holly NWS has a Winter Weather Advisory up... and just to quote it:



For the rest of the state Precipitation moves in West to East just as temperatures are warming up, and it will be RAIN. Scattered and in the afternoon for Eastern Parts of the state into the afternoon. By Tuesday night temperatures Rise and get VERY warm with thunderstorms. Temperatures could get into the 50's wednesday morning with wind-driven rain. Ugly Out there. Melting the snow though for those who don't like it. However the temperatures will then begin to tumble Wednesday afternoon and the rain may briefly end as some wet snow. Especially in northern areas. Not too likely in southern areas but it is POSSIBLE.

The week ahead in general terms looks like this:

Tonight: Lows in the Teens to low 20's in warmest spots. COLD.
Tomorrow: rain developing south freezing rain North, High around 40*.
Tuesday Night: temperatures rising into the lower 50's. Thunderstorms possible.
Wednesday: High Temperatures reached early in the day.. and then maybe some wet snow for parts of the state after 1 PM as temperatures Crash. Windy Conditions remiain.
Wednesday night: Lows in the 20's. Warming it back up for the end of the work week. If the wind doesnt dry whats left watch for ice.
Thursday: Upper 40's to 50 With Sunshine
Even warmer by Friday!

Looking ahead, I am become VERY Confident in Winters REAL return Jan. 30th or so. More on that tomorrow.

01-20-2006, 04:26 PM
I am presseed for time but could snow be falling by Monday? What about the long-range? Will we pay for this warmth. I'll have a FULL Blog post tonight! Many of you will like what you will read; others will not!

Stay tuned!

01-20-2006, 04:30 PM
I am presseed for time but could snow be falling by Monday? What about the long-range? Will we pay for this warmth. I'll have a FULL Blog post tonight! Many of you will like what you will read; others will not!

Stay tuned!
As Willy Wonka said - "The suspense is killing me" :)

01-22-2006, 01:06 PM
Sunday, January 22, 2006
1:25 PM

Alright First things first. My forecast on tonights/tomorrows event will be coming but just an historical perspective.

1 Year ago Today.. T
The Blizzard of 2005 was on top of the area. Here's the accumulation Map:

http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html I HIGHLY reccomend this site!!

And a video from CBS if your interested:

And to those who writting off this winter.. On Jan. 15, 2005 it was 62* in Philly, and then well.. Look at this quote.. It got DOWN RIGHT COLD IN the US!

Cold air extends all the way south to Florida, from the Panhandle on down to the Keys, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a hard freeze watch for northwest Florida. In Ocala, the mercury dipped to 25 degrees.

And now into tomorrows system.

Tonight and Into Tomorrow
Precip rolls in across the state after Midnight. And heres how it starts to fall. For a good 2/3 of the Central and Southern portions of the state it be a rain, a cold damp rain, but a rain. The Timeline looks as follows:

After Midnight when the Precip starts:

Throughout the Overnight Hours the rain line will continue however to move Northward. Good news for about 90% of the state. Because by the time morning Rush rolls around the map has changed and now looks like:

And by lets say 10 AM.. almost everyone has changed to Rain. However The exception being Sussex County. Where the elevation really is going to be key, allowing some of that colder air to stay in throughout the day so for Monday heres a GENERAL day time call.

Just a Clarification that Ice could be mostly snow. However to me any ice is a LOT worse then snow, and i think thats the Truest headline for that area and could be my biggest concern. However the elevation may allow for that area to stay as snow.


What does it add up to? Generally Anything but a big deal for many, however the accumulation map does look like this:
Keeping in mind if the area changes over, You may wake up to nothing because It will have washed away.

Long Range Forecast
Now onto the Long range. I Won't get too technical throughout this entry However, later throughout the week I will continue to explain why January has been so warm and why Feb. Could be a lot different. But Generally speaking here we go.

This week will be cooler then its been. However for much of the week still slightly above average. Keeping in mind anything about about 40* is above Average. Wednesday and Thursday temps could however struggle to get out of the 30's but by Friday they should once again get to 40* or so. No big storms to be concerned about throughout the week as of now.

Into next week we start a SLOW pattern change. Temps may once again get into the mid-40's to start the week of the 29th. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we did have a BRIEF warm-up again. However, Brief is the Key word here. The 29th could feature a rain to snow event? Maybe all rain? Too far out to even question really. I'd however place more bets on rain at this time but its too far out to say with much confidence. Towards the middle and later parts of next week we should start to cool down and will start Feb. seasonably cool I think.

By that first week of Feb. the "Polar Express" Or the "Winter Gravy Train" Should be starting to build up momentum. I think personally we have some VERY good chances @ some light to maybe moderate snowfalls in the first 7 days. Possibly up to 2 4" storms maybe? WAY to early to even speculate. But I think the time of Feb. 8-15th we start to change. Dates aren't specific but won't matter too much. The coldest air should be in here by lets say the 17th. And I think just about 10th we could REALLY have our BEST chance at A BIG Snowstorm. A little too early to be specific yet, but the pieces that we need to come together are starting too. Keep in mind, Rome wasn't built in one day, and the cold pattern changing will be SLOW. But YOU WILL FEEL IT. And in fact it could be a COLDER then average Feburary so keep that in mind in the coming days. ENJOY THIS JANURARY.. You will Pay later. And even March as I once mentioned could be snowy and cold but let's not get too ahead of ourselves.

As always, I request your observations! I'd love to know if my forecast for your area varifiied. Any pictures anything, ect. Please Post them!

Be Careful in the NW portions of the state Tomorrow!!

01-27-2006, 03:05 PM
I will have an Update coming in a bit later this afternoon, but I dont want to say anything yet. But it POSSIBLE That many viewers of this board MAYBE needing snow shovels by Tuesday!

I will be updating several times a day throughout the weekend if things continue on the present course! First update should be out around 5 PM today with a sypnosis of what we could be looking at! And throughout the weekend. STAY TUNED!!

02-10-2006, 06:41 AM
Not enough time but my accumulation map:


More today @ 3 PM

02-13-2006, 11:54 PM
Hi Radio joe, Better enjoy the snow while it lasts. The big meltdown is Wednesday. I wish I was there in NJ. Marianita

04-22-2006, 02:37 PM
My cousin Joe who was doing the weather forecast - well for a while anyway - is moving to North Carolina. I have no idea why his mother insists on taking him away from the Great State of New Jersey - but anyway, he has no choice in the matter and I suppose will no longer be able to do the "accurate" :p NJ forecasts. :(

04-22-2006, 11:13 PM
Hi Jersey Devil, My goodness, how could Joe leave New Jersey once he was established there? If I ever get a chance I am going to live there.I wonder if Joe predicts the weather in N.Carolina now. lol. So Joe's weather predictions were accurate? amazing. He must be quite young if he had no choice about leaving. Maybe he will return someday. :)